In Session Four, we presented a matrix for prioritizing risks and assessing the likelihood of a crisis developing. Another effective method is conducting a risk level analysis, based on the violence response system proposed by Dr. James Turner and Dr. Michael Gelles in “Threat Assessment: A Risk Management Approach.”
Category 1 (Most Severe)
- High Risk Potential: Available data indicates a significant risk.
- History of Severity: Previous incidents have demonstrated high likelihood and high impact.
- Response Requirement: Demands a major organizational response.
- Example: A hurricane alert is issued for your area, with past storms causing extensive damage.
Category 2
- High Risk Potential: Available data suggests a significant risk.
- Organizational Assessment: Identified as low likelihood but high impact.
- Response Requirement: Requires a major organizational response.
- Example: A hurricane watch is issued, though no storm has ever directly struck your city. If one does, it will greatly affect operations.
Category 3
- High Likelihood and Low Impact: Identified as a high likelihood crisis with manageable impact.
- Concern for Effects: The organization is mindful of the crisis’s potential effects.
- Response Requirement: Needs a moderate to major organizational response.
- Example: A major storm is expected to impact a neighboring area, but direct effects on your operations are unlikely. Nevertheless, preparation is desired.
Category 4 (Least Severe)
- Insufficient Data: Available information does not clearly indicate risk potential.
- Low Likelihood and Low Impact: Identified as low likelihood and low impact.
- Unfounded Risks: The reported risk may lack substantial evidence.
- Response Requirement: Requires a low to moderate organizational response.
- Example: A rumor circulates that the local telephone company may go on strike.
