Victor Vroom’s Expectancy Theory suggests that when individuals are faced with a decision on how to act, they are guided by the potential costs and benefits associated with each option. People tend to choose the course of action that they believe will yield the highest net benefit, taking into account both positive and negative outcomes.

If you can influence someone’s perception of the value of a particular outcome or their belief in the likelihood of achieving it, you can alter their expected net outcomes. For example, if someone begins to see greater value in earning a promotion than they previously did, the appeal of that outcome—and thus its motivational pull—will increase. A supervisor might enhance this effect by highlighting aspects of the promotion that the person hadn’t considered before. Similarly, if the supervisor can adjust the person’s expectations about their chances of receiving a promotion—perhaps by convincing them (truthfully) that their odds are better than they think—their motivation to pursue that outcome will grow.

While this theory simplifies complex decision-making processes and has faced criticism for its straightforwardness, even Vroom acknowledged its simplicity. Nonetheless, it serves as a useful foundation for discussion and debate. For instance, certain motivational strategies can backfire. If an employee works hard for a raise, but realizes that the raise will push them into a higher tax bracket, resulting in less take-home pay, the raise itself could become a demotivator instead of a motivator.